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High Probability Stock Trading Strategies That I Use

Author:

Glenn Stok writes about investment and risk-control strategies he perfected in 45 years trading stocks, options, and futures contracts.

High Probability Stock Trading Strategies

High Probability Stock Trading Strategies

I have been investing in stocks for 45 years. During that time, I made a lot of mistakes, but each time I learned something. Those lessons helped me develop strategies for a high probability of success. Now I can share these lessons with you.

Begin by Planning Your Entry Point

It would help if you had a rule for when you buy and when you sell. Don’t just buy a stock when you discover it, and you think it might be an excellent addition to your portfolio. You need to do some research to decide what price is right for getting in.

Don’t be afraid of missing out, thinking that it will go up from there, and you’d have to pay more if you had waited. There is only a 50% chance of going up. It took me decades of trading to finally learn that.

Stock prices can only go up or down. Therefore, it’s always a 50/50 chance either way. So be patient when getting in. Stocks also fluctuate throughout the day, so if you are sure you want it now, right now, then at least put a limit order in a little lower than the trading price.

Better yet, examine the daily chart and see how much it’s been fluctuating in the past few hours. That will help you judge where to place your bid for the limit order.

Sometime later in the day, your order might be filled, and you’ll be happy you got a better deal than if you went in right away.

Plan Your Exit Strategy

You should plan an exit strategy before you get into a trade. Decide on what conditions you will accept. Do you want to make a hundred bucks—or a thousand? What about a loss? Are you willing to lose $100?

Are you willing to ride it all the way down if that’s the direction it will go?

I once held on to an investment until the company went bankrupt, and the stock went to zero. I kept telling myself that I lost so much that I’d wait for it to rebound. But I just kept losing more.

The trick is to have the courage to admit when you’re wrong and get the hell out!

The method that I finally learned to follow is to decide how much I am willing to lose. If you do that and you reach that level, admit you were wrong and sell. You’ll have succeeded with holding on to your money to use for another investment later.

I remember times when I’d stay with a losing stock while watching another take off like a rocket. If only I sold the underperforming one and put those funds in the other.

I had a loss on a trade that was greater than the amount I was comfortable losing. Because of that, I wanted to get my money back, so I waited.

That is NOT the correct strategy!

I knew I was sitting on a loss. If I had closed that trade and taken the loss, I might have moved the funds to a better investment.

Learn to admit when you’re wrong and save your money for another day. It gets easy to do that after a while.

The best strategy is to plan ahead of time how much you are willing to lose on any trade. Then place a stop order as soon as you entered the trade.

Moreover, don’t change the stop price later. I found that whenever I modified a strategy midstream, I screwed up the process.

You’re more right at the beginning when you're clear-headed because you're not yet involved in the trade. When you make changes later out of greed, or fear of loss, you're doing it for the wrong reason. Leave it alone and let the trade work as initially planned.

Take Your Profits Early

I asked you earlier if you knew how much profit you wanted. A hundred bucks? A thousand?

It’s crucial to have an idea of this and take it when you reach it. When you close a trade, your money is free for another. It’s better not to be greedy—hoping for more. Plan what profit you want, and take it when you reach it.

If only I had done that throughout my life. I often had a trade where I was sitting on a nice gain and lost it. I was picking the right stocks, but I didn't take profits when I had them.

I remember thinking it was so easy, and I was on a roll, and I thought it would continue.

Hey! Remember what I said earlier—stock prices only have a 50% chance of going in any direction. Never forget that, especially when you have a reasonable profit. Don’t let greed make you wait for more and cause you to lose your gain.

There are two ways to handle this:

  1. You can take all the profit and close the entire trade.
  2. You can sell a portion of it and let the rest ride. That works too.

If you are lucky enough to have doubled your money, and you think the stock still has a reason to move higher, then you might want to take half off the table. The other half is “found money,” and you can afford to lose the entire thing if the trend reverses.

Keep a Journal and Learn From Your Mistakes

Keeping a journal of your activity is a great way to learn from your mistakes. It’s truly a goldmine.

I learned a lot from reviewing my past activity and noticing what I did wrong when I lost and what I did right when things worked for me. That knowledge gave me the ability to repeat the patterns that worked.

Keep a record of all your successes and failures. That will help show you what has been working for you and what went wrong, and why. Knowing why things went wrong will help you avoid making the same mistakes again.

Try to keep some sanity in your behavior. We tend to want to try failing methods a few times before we accept that there has to be a better way. The sooner you give up on those hopeless tendencies, the better.

Keeping a journal of your trades helps discover your mistakes.

Keeping a journal of your trades helps discover your mistakes.

Use One-Cancels-Other (OCO) Orders

Make the entire strategy mechanical, so your emotions don’t force you to change your strategy midstream. Mechanical trading eliminates the adverse effects of emotional trading.1

If your broker allows OCO trades, use it. You can set a closing trade to execute with a specific gain and with a stop-loss at the same time.

Whichever occurs first gets executed, and the other is canceled. Stock prices don’t go up and down at the same time. Therefore, you either take your profit when you have it, or mechanically limit your loss without the interference of emotion.

Plan how much you are willing to risk, and set the stop-loss accordingly. In addition, take advantage of the OCO order entry by including a limit order at the price that gives you the gain you’d be happy taking.

Explanation of Mechanical Trading

Mechanical trading eliminates the problem of your emotions getting in the way. When you make everything automated, you will be able to be more objective with your trading decisions. You won't be subject to emotional feelings that get in the way and cause you to change your plan.2

I know my emotions always mess me up. I double-think it and usually make the worst move.

If you have a gain and you take it, it’s a sure thing. If you have a loss and you cut it, you certainly limit your portfolio from getting any worse.

You end up making any profits a reality, but you also limit your losses. I think that’s a win-win situation by any means!

Considerations for Exiting With a Gain

Some people feel they don’t want to sell a stock with a substantial gain because they’ll have to pay taxes on it. They know that if they hold it longer than a year, the long-term gain is taxed more favorably—at least here in America.

I’ve had experience holding on to significant gains, only to lose most of it when the stock gave it all back.

In my opinion, I would say not to worry about paying taxes. You still keep most of your money. You might give it all back if you hold on. Remember the other option I mentioned earlier. You can sell a portion of a trade.

Maintain Similar Position Sizes

I made the mistake of increasing my investments in specific stocks that were doing exceptionally well. But I didn’t add to my under-performing holdings at the same time.

What ended up happening too many times, the profitable stock turned around. Since I increased my investment, I ended up losing a great deal more than I would have if I kept my entire holdings balanced.

So, here’s my strategy for this:

Figure out how large a position you need to make the gain you want while risking only what you can afford to lose.

Keep all your positions the same size. You never know when you will be right or wrong. If you double up on one trade, compared to another, you might just end up doubling up on a lousy investment and therefore doubling your losses.

If you keep all your trades the same size and follow the rules for the high probability strategy that I discussed so far, you could have a good chance of doing better than the average investor.

Long-Term Investing

There is another method to consider that has enormous potential. If you are young and have time to let things grow, long-term investing can be a game-changer for your retirement years. Of course, that all depends on the type of stocks you hold all that time.

Notice that I call that “investing” rather than "trading." I believe in that! It’s a long-term strategy that has worked in most cases.

Long-term success requires picking the right stocks, picking the right direction, and picking the right timing.

If you pick the right stocks and don't let your emotions keep making you change your mind, then you might do very well in the long run. I remember the DOW being around 800 when I first began trading on the market. Now it’s above 30,000.

You still want to cut your losses even if your goal is a life-long investment, so you always will find yourself trading in and out somewhat. However, don’t let your emotions guide you.

Fear and emotion are two things that make long-term trading fail. People who don't look at their holdings for 30 years or so are usually surprised to discover they are millionaires in the end. But that’s rare and true only if they had chosen the right stocks.

Other things can go wrong, such as war or other catastrophes.

Once you achieve a history of trading success, you’ll have realized a certain amount of knowledge and experience that you can use to control your behavior. That will help you maintain these high probability strategies.

Good luck.

References

  1. "How to Avoid Emotional Stock Trading to Increase Profits" - ToughNickel.com
  2. "Why It’s Most Profitable to Trade Stocks Objectively" - ToughNickel.com

This article is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge. Content is for informational or entertainment purposes only and does not substitute for personal counsel or professional advice in business, financial, legal, or technical matters.

© 2020 Glenn Stok

Comments

Glenn Stok (author) from Long Island, NY on January 23, 2020:

Ken Burgess - You summarized it well. You can protect yourself when shorting a stock, same in reverse, by placing a stop order to buy it back if it goes up beyond your loss threshold.

Ken Burgess from Florida on January 23, 2020:

Good article, what I have learned:

Don't put your money into a stock/company you don't feel confident will eventually go up past your buy point.

Do your research, and be willing to hold onto it for a while if necessary.

Don't margin to hold, don't margin if you can't take the loss when you get out.

Don't short a stock you don't have stake in, most will lose more often than they gain, its a game for people who can take a big loss.

Glenn Stok (author) from Long Island, NY on January 23, 2020:

Liz Westwood - Many strategies exist that people experiment with, but the most crucial one, in my opinion, is controlling risk.

Liz Westwood from UK on January 23, 2020:

The stock market has long been a mystery for me. Thanks for sharing the tips you have picked up from experience to help novices like me. This article gives a good insight into how the system works and how to make the most of it.

Glenn Stok (author) from Long Island, NY on January 22, 2020:

Pamela Oglesby - Your story about your Mom's and your investment is not unusual. I know a several people who bought a good stock at the right time when it was depressed, and didn’t play with it afterward. They just let it grow.

Glenn Stok (author) from Long Island, NY on January 22, 2020:

Angelo - Thanks for the complement. Avoid the pitfalls and the successes will multiply.

Pamela Oglesby from Sunny Florida on January 22, 2020:

My mother and I put $1000 into Lowe's stock several years ago when the housing market was not good. We made over $4000 in just a few years. This was beginners luck for sure.

I think you gave us some solid advice for investing. I am not at an age where I want to risk money, so any investments now would be very conservative. This is a good article for those just beginning to invest for sure.

Angelo from College Park, MD on January 22, 2020:

Genius man, thanks for sharing I'll follow intensely in hopes of enjoying your successes while also avoiding those pitfalls.

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